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Economic indicators creep up in October

Optimism on Wall Street -- and Main Street -- nudged the U.S. Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators 0.2 percent higher in October.

An effervescent stock market, coupled with rosy consumer expectations drove the leading index to 138.3, according to the Conference Board, an industry-backed research group based in New York. In January, the index hit 139.1, its peak so far this year.

The index, designed to predict economic activity in the three to six months ahead, has been down four of the last seven months. The index fell in both July and August before edging modestly higher in September.

Locally, the area's index of leading indicators dipped to 108.41 in October, the University of North Florida's Local Economic Indicators Project said. The index of leading indicators for Jacksonville was down nearly a tenth of a percent from September.

So far in 2006, the LEI has increased in five months, and declined in five, UNF economist Paul Mason, who coordinates the LEIP project, said in a statement.

"With the small drop in October . . . and the small rise in September, the LEI is virtually unchanged from where it was at the end of 2005," Mason said. "However, the major drop in the last three months foretells a weaker first quarter of 2007." Locally, five of the 11 indicators, including new unemployment claims, were down in October. Up, significantly, were consumer confidence and the real money supply.

The diversity of the local economy and its potential for growth are some reasons Don Wiggins, president of Heritage Capital Group, is optimistic about the long-term health of the regional economy.

"You have strong population growth, a lot of development going on, and available land," Wiggins said. "All of those set the stage for long-term growth." Nationally, six of the 10 indicators that comprise the leading index increased in October, including stock prices, real money supply, and consumer expectations. The negative contributors included building permits, vendor performance and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods.